Refinancing your mortgage refers to the process of renegotiating your current mortgage agreement for a variety of reasons. Essentially, refinancing allows you to pay off your existing mortgage and replace it with a new one.

There are a variety of reasons to consider mortgage refinancing, including but not limited to:

• You want to leverage large increases in property value
• You want to get equity out of the home for upgrades or renovations
• You want to expand your investment portfolio
• You are looking to consolidate your debt
• You have kids headed off to college
• You are going through a divorce
• You want a better interest rate
• You want to convert your mortgage from fixed to variable (or vice-versa)

Mortgage refinancing can result in a host of great benefits, such as reducing financial stress and helping get you back on track for your financial future! Some of the larger benefits include:

ACCESS A LOWER INTEREST RATE

As mentioned above, one reason to refinance your mortgage is to get a better rate – this is especially true when done through a mortgage professional. On average, a DLC mortgage professional has access to over 90 lenders! This allows them to find the best mortgage product for your unique needs, versus traditional banks that only have access to their own mortgage offerings. Plus, using a mortgage expert allows you to benefit from their advice at typically zero cost to you.

CONSOLIDATING YOUR DEBT

There are many different types of debt from credit cards and lines of credit to school loans and mortgages. But, did you know that most types of consumer debt have much higher interest rates than those you would pay on a mortgage? Refinancing can free up cash to help you pay out these debts. While it may increase your mortgage, your overall payments could be far lower and would be a single payment versus multiple sources. Keep in mind, you need at least 20 percent equity in your home to qualify.

MODIFYING YOUR MORTGAGE

Life is that it is ever-changing and sometimes you need to pay off your mortgage faster or change your mortgage type. Maybe you came into some extra money and want to put it towards your mortgage or maybe you are weary of the market and want to lock in at a fixed-rate for security. Always be sure to talk to your mortgage professional about potential penalties.

UTILIZING YOUR HOME EQUITY

One of the biggest reasons to buy in the first place is to build up equity in your home. Consider your home equity as the difference between your property’s market value and the balance of your mortgage. If you need funds, you can refinance your mortgage to access up to 80% of your home’s appraised value!

As with everything, refinancing comes at a price! If you are experiencing a financial rough-patch or one of the previously mentioned situations and think that refinancing your mortgage could be the right solution, there are a few things to know.

The first and most important thing to understand about mortgage refinancing is that if you opt to refinance during your term, it is considered to be breaking your mortgage agreement. As with any contract, there are associated penalties for breaking them and it could end up being quite costly. If at all possible, it is always best to wait until the end of the mortgage term before any refinancing is conducted.

Beyond the penalties, there are a few additional things to know about mortgage refinancing such as:

• It allows you to tap into 80 percent of the value of your home.
• It requires re-qualification under the current rates and rules, which includes passing the “stress test” again
• No default insurance is required, which could give you more lender options
• There is typically an appraisal cost and legal fees for the new mortgage agreement

Talking to a Myself about refinancing can provide you access to even greater rates and mortgage plans to best suit your needs and what you are trying to accomplish through your refinancing strategy. The best part? My services won’t cost you a penny. Why wait? Lets Chat!

Written by My Amazing DLC Marketing Team

DO YOU AUTOMATICALLY LOOK AT A RATE WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE TO GO??

LET ME FILL YOU IN WHY IT’S NOT ALWAYS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR

When it comes to mortgages, it is easy to focus on the rates and your current situation, but the reality is that life happens and when it does, rates won’t be the only thing that matters.

First and foremost, the most important thing to remember is that a mortgage is a contract. That means that there is a penalty involved if the contract is ever broken. This is something that every homeowner agrees to when you sign mortgage paperwork, but it can be easy to forget – until you’re paying the price.

Why break your mortgage?

You’re probably wondering why you would ever break your mortgage contract? Well, you might be surprised to find out that 6 out of 10 mortgages in Canada are broken within 3 years and there are typically nine common reasons that this happens:

• Sale and purchase of a new home
• To utilize equity
• To pay off debt
• Cohabitation, marriage and/or children
• Divorce or separation
• Major life events (illness, unemployment, death of a partner)
• Removing someone from title
• To get a lower interest rate
• To pay off the mortgage

It is always important to think ahead when signing a mortgage agreement, but not everything can be planned for. In that event, it is important to understand the next steps if you do indeed need to break your mortgage.

Calculating the Penalties

Typically, the penalty for breaking a mortgage is calculated in two different ways. Lenders generally use an Interest Rate Differential calculation or the sum of three months interest to determine the penalty. You will typically be assessed the greater of the two penalties, unless your contract states otherwise.

INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL (IRD)

In Canada there is no one-size-fits-all rule for how the Interest Rate Differential (IRD) is calculated and it can vary greatly from lender to lender. This is due to the various comparison rates that are used.

However, typically the IRD is based on the following:

• The amount remaining on the loan
• The difference between the original mortgage interest rate you signed at and the current interest rate a lender can charge today

In this case, these penalties vary greatly as they are based on the borrower’s specific mortgage and the specific rates on the agreement, and in the market today. However, let’s assume you have a balance of $200,000 on your mortgage, an annual interest rate of 6%, 36 months remaining in your 5-year term and the current rate is 4%. This would mean an IRD penalty of $12,000 if you break the contract.

Ideally, you will want to be aware of what your IRD penalty would be before you decide to break your mortgage as it is not always the most viable option.

THREE MONTHS DIFFERENCE

In some cases, the penalty for breaking your mortgage is simply equivalent to three months of interest. Using the same example as above – balance of $200,000 on your mortgage, an annual interest rate of 6% – then three months interest would be a $3,000 penalty. A variable-rate mortgage is typically accompanied by only the three-month interest penalty.

Paying the Penalty

When it comes to making the payment, some lenders may allow you to add this penalty to your new mortgage balance (meaning you would pay interest on it). You can also pay your penalty up front.

Whenever possible, if you can wait out your current mortgage term before making a change to your mortgage, it is the best way to avoid being stuck in the penalty box. If you cannot avoid a penalty, do note that, while only calculators can be great tools for estimates, it is best to call your lender or mortgage broker directly for the accurate number in the case of determining penalties.

If you are unsure about getting the best penalty terms, reach out to a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker today! They can help you find the best mortgage product for you.

Written by My Amazing DLC Marketing Team

ARE YOU TRYING TO DECIDE WHETHER YOU SHOULD RENT OR BUY? Here’s What You Need to Know!.

When it comes to the Canadian housing market, there are lots of options for where to live! From renting an apartment to owning a single-family home, it all comes down to where you see yourself living and what you can afford! The beauty is, there is no right or wrong answer when it comes to renting versus buying but let’s break down the pros and cons of both and hopefully help you to decide which is best for you!

why do people rent?

One of the most common answers to this question is affordability. Most people rent because they believe it is cheaper than owning a home. This can be true in some cases, but there are also times when monthly rent costs are higher than monthly mortgage payments. Of course, there are also cases where rent is far more affordable than buying, especially when you factor in the cost of a down payment and maintenance on a home you own, rather than one you rent. Affordability is fairly dependent on an individual’s situation, but it is not the only decision factor for choosing to rent.

Another reason individuals may choose to rent is that they simply aren’t sure where they want to live, or maybe they cannot find a place that fits their needs. If you are new to an area, you may want to rent in the meantime so you can get to know the neighbourhoods and determine which area is the right fit for you. In some cases, you simply may be unable to find a home that is affordable to buy in the area you want or within a reasonable commute from your work.

For individuals who travel a lot for work or like to be free-floating, renting can be the perfect option but if you simply believe buying a home to be out of the question, it is time to take a hard look at your options because it may not be so far fetched!

pros and cons of renting:

To help you decide if renting is right for you, we have put together a little list of pros versus cons to help you see if it is the right fit.

why do people buy?

According to the most recent data, Canada boasts an overall homeownership rate of 67.8%. Even for those Canadians aged 35 and under, more than 40% of households own their own homes. This is quite an impressive statistic! So, let’s look at why people choose to buy.

One of the main reasons that people choose to buy a home is to have the stability and peace of mind of owning the place you live. This means you are not at risk of being put in a situation where the landlord wants to move their parents into the basement suite and you have to leave or having to deal with increased costs if you go to renew a lease agreement.

For others, the benefit to buying comes in building up equity and ensuring that nest egg for your future. When you choose to rent, you are paying into someone else’s mortgage and into their future but when you work towards buying your own home, suddenly all that money you invested is going to your future instead. This is an extremely important aspect to consider in today’s age when many are having trouble with the idea of saving for retirement.

Now I get it, you may be thinking “if I can’t afford to retire, how can I afford to buy a house” but if you can afford to pay the high cost of rent in today’s market, then home ownership isn’t as far out of reach as you think. This is especially true if you buy a two-story home and rent out the basement, giving you ample living space upstairs but also additional income to pay your mortgage.

pros and cons of buying:

To further show the benefits and costs to buying, we have broken down some pros and cons to help you to determine if this is the right path for you.

to rent or buy, that is the question!

Did you know? 4 in 10 households spend more than 30 per cent of their pre-tax income on rent, which is above the commonly accepted affordability threshold.

The latest National Bank report revealed that monthly mortgage costs for median-priced condos was higher than the average monthly rent for a similar unit in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Victoria and Hamilton. At the same time, monthly mortgage payments were lower than rents in Calgary, Edmonton, Quebec City, Winnipeg and Ottawa. While this data does not include suburbs, it shows a staggering difference between mortgage payments and rent payments.

If someone can rent for $900 a month or pay a mortgage of $1200 a month, it may seem like a no brainer but it is important to remember that paying rent does not build equity! However, if you are unsure of where you want to live or cannot find a suitable and affordable home with a close enough commute to work, renting may be your only option. This is where checking listings and discussing with a real estate agent may open doors and where a mortgage broker can come in handy to help you determine if purchasing a home is viable in your near future.

yes, you can buy!

The reality is that in the long run, homeowners often fare financially better than renters because homeownership enables forced savings that accumulate over the years, growing into a sizeable nest egg.

If you are unhappy renting or really prefer the idea of owning your own home, you CAN. It is time to stop assuming you cannot make the leap from renting to buying – all you need is the right information and the right preparation!

To determine if you are able to purchase a home, a good place to start is the My Mortgage Toolbox app from Dominion Lending Centers. This app is perfect for seeing what you can afford. Using the app to calculate minimum down payments and monthly mortgage costs can help you to get a good picture of the financial landscape and your options. Looking at your budget and evaluating your current rent costs and other monthly expenses can also help you to determine your affordability bracket.

Some other things to consider before buying include:

• Your credit score – do you have good financial standing to be approved for a mortgage?
• Your savings – do you have any money put away for a downpayment? If not, do you have wiggle room in your budget to start saving?
• Your time – do you have the resources to maintain a home from the yard to any necessary repairs?

If buying a home to live in is out of the question due to the availability in your area or cost of homes close to work, another option is to consider an investment opportunity. Maybe you cannot afford to buy in the area you want so you rent in order to keep your commute short and be in a neighbourhood you love. However, you can still reap the equity benefits by investing in a vacation or rental property which would give you the necessary nest egg and help you feel more secure about your future financial situation. You could keep the investment property as long as you want! If you end up finding the perfect home in your area down the line, you could always sell your investment property and take the earnings for a down payment on the right home – or keep it as an extra security blanket!

Regardless of whether you choose to continue renting or make the leap to owning your own home, the most important factor is your financial security. What works for your friend or your parents may not work for you – and that is okay! However, educating yourself and looking into all the options will ensure that, at the end of the day, you are in the best situation for yourself.

Written by my DLC Marketing Team

Variable or Fixed… Question of the Day

When it comes to mortgages, the age-old question remains: “Should I go with a variable or fixed-rate?”. To make an informed decision, it is important to look at the type of buyer and the historical trends.

When it comes to variable versus fixed-rate, it is important to understand what these mortgages are based off of. Fixed mortgages are so named as they are based on a fixed interest rate that is set for the duration of the term with fixed payments. On the other hand, variable-rate mortgages fluctuate with the Prime Rate. This can either mean fluctuations in your payment, or if you choose to have set payments, the interest portion of the payment.

In the last 10 years, the prime lending rate has gone from 2.50% to 3.95% and now sits at 2.45% as of January 2022. Due to recent events, these rates have seen even more of a downturn providing huge benefits to new borrowers looking to pay as little as possible.

While a variable-rate mortgage is linked to the Prime Rate, which could cause fluctuations, historically the choice of a variable rate mortgage over a fixed term has allowed borrowers to save in interest costs.

However, due to the uncertainty and potential fluctuations that can occur with a variable-rate mortgage, it comes down to the borrowers comfort. Some individuals have no wiggle room in their budget for potential changes in mortgage payments, or they do not like the uncertainty. For these clients, a fixed-rate would be the best choice.

On the other hand, clients who qualify for variable-rate mortgages have a unique opportunity to take advantage of lower interest rates. If you have a variable-rate mortgage, you can either set a fixed-payment so that, if the interest rate drops, it means you are paying more on your principal loan each month. Or, if you have flexible payments, you may see your monthly payments drop in accordance to decreases in the Prime Rate. However, since every 10% increase in payment can save three years off the amortization of a five-year term, having fixed payments provide extra benefits. After all, extra pennies towards the principle can help make a difference over the life of a 25 or 30 year mortgage.

Here’s an example:

Amy and Jake have a balance owing of $300,000 on their mortgage with a variable rate at Prime minus .80%, (giving us 1.65%) with current payments set at $703 bi-weekly. The mortgage matures in 24 months but they are considering locking in for a new five-year term at 3.34%. New payments would be $739. As much as they love their home, they are considering a move in the next couple years.

When reviewing this mortgage, it is more beneficial for them to keep the remaining variable-rate in place for two years. However, if they set the payments based on 3.34% or $739 bi-weekly, this allows them to pay an extra $72 on their mortgage per month. In 24 months, the savings on interest is $4,000 and their outstanding balance is $4,000 less than by staying in the fixed rate.

Another benefit to variable-rate mortgages is that, if you choose to sell before the mortgage term is up, the penalty is typically only three months interest as opposed to much heavier interest rate differential (IRD) calculations used to determine fixed-rate mortgage penalties.

With this strategy they don’t have to feel pressure to lock-in today, plus they can continue taking advantage of the lower variable rate.

If your mortgage is maturing in the next 90-180 days and you’re not quite sure what to do, we should chat

Not only can I provide tips for your existing variable-rate mortgage to help save you money, but I can help you assess whether fixed-rate is right for you or if you should make the switch.

Written by my DLC Marketing Team

Canadian Homebuyers Trying To Beat Rate Hikes

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing-home sales rose 0.6% in November following the whopping 8.6% surge the month before. Sales could have been higher had it not been for the limited supply of homes for sale. Homebuyers are anxious to finalize purchases before the Bank of Canada hikes interest rates next year.Across the country, sales gains in Calgary, Edmonton, the B.C. interior, Regina and Saskatoon offset declines in activity in the GTA and Montreal.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in November 2021 was firm historically, edging down a scant 0.7% on a year-over-year basis, missing the 2020 record for that month by just a few hundred transactions.

On a year-to-date basis, some 630,634 residential properties have traded hands via Canadian MLS® Systems between January and November 2021, far surpassing the annual record 552,423 sales for all of 2020.

“The fact is that the supply issues we faced going into 2020, which became much worse heading into 2021, are even tighter as we move into 2022. Interest rate hikes will make it even harder for new entrants to break into the market next year, even though activity may remain robust as existing owners continue to move around in response to all of the changes to our lives since COVID showed up on the scene. As such, the issue of inequality in the housing space will remain top of mind. One wildcard will be what policymakers decide to do with the national mortgage stress test, which could act as a kind of cushion against rising rates for young and/or first-time buyers. It could also make things that much harder for them,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes rose by 3.3% in November compared to October, driven by gains in a little over half of local markets, including the GTA, Lower Mainland, Montreal, and many markets in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe.

With new listings up by more than sales in November, the sales-to-new listings ratio eased a bit to 77% compared to 79.1% in October. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%.

About two-thirds of local markets were seller’s markets based on the sales-to-new listings ratio being more than one standard deviation above its long-term mean. The other one-third of local markets were in balanced market territory.

There were just 1.8 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2021, tied with March 2021 for the lowest level ever recorded. The long-term average for this measure is more than 5 months.

Home Prices

In line with some of the tightest market conditions ever recorded, the Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) was up another 2.7% on a month-over-month basis in November 2021.
The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up by a record 25.3% year-over-year in November.

Year-over-year price growth has crept back up to nearly 25% in B.C., though it remains lower in Vancouver, on par with the provincial number in Victoria, and higher in other parts of the province.

Year-over-year price gains are still in the mid-to-high single digits in Alberta and Saskatchewan, while gains have risen to about 13% in Manitoba.

Ontario saw year-over-year price growth hit 30% in November, with the GTA continuing to surge ahead after trailing most other parts of the province for most of the pandemic.

Greater Montreal’s year-over-year price growth remains at a little over 20%, while Quebec City was only about half that.

Price growth is running above 30% in New Brunswick (higher in Greater Moncton, lower in Fredericton and Saint John), while Newfoundland and Labrador is now at 10% year-over-year (lower in St. John’s).

Bottom Line–Lots of News Today

Canada continues to contend with one of the developed world’s most severe housing shortages; as our borders open to a resurgence of immigration, excess demand for housing will mount. The impediments to a rapid rise in housing supply, both for rent and purchase, are primarily in the planning and approvals process at the municipal and provincial levels. Liberal Party election promises do not address these issues.

Inflation pressures are mounting everywhere. The US posted a year-over-year inflation rate for November at 6.8%, up from 6.2% posted the month before. This undoubtedly led the US Federal Reserve to issue a hawkish statement today, intensifying their battle against inflation. They announced that they will double the pace at which it’s scaling back purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to $30 billion a month, putting it on track to conclude the program in early 2022, rather than mid-year as initially planned.

Projections published alongside the statement showed officials expect three quarter-point increases in the benchmark federal funds rate will be appropriate next year, according to the median estimate, after holding borrowing costs near zero since March 2020.

According to Bloomberg News, “The faster pullback puts Powell in a position to raise rates earlier than previously anticipated to counter price pressures if necessary, even as the pandemic poses an ongoing challenge to the economic recovery. The Fed flagged concerns over the new omicron strain, saying that risks to the economic outlook remain, including from new variants of the virus.”

On more positive news, Canada’s inflation rate held steady at 4.7% y/y in November, well below the pace in the US. Excluding food and energy products, CPI ticked slightly lower to 3.1% from a year ago in November, or 2.7% on an annualized seasonally adjusted basis relative to the pre-shock February 2020 level. Roughly half of that 2.7% can still be attributed to rising expenses related to home-owning and car purchase or leasing. But the breadth of inflation pressure has also widened, with 58% of the consumer basket seeing faster-than-2% annualized growth in November from pre-pandemic (2019) levels on average over the last three months. That compares to 47% in February 2020. The broadening is expected to carry on in 2022 as rising input, transport and labour expenses continue to flow through supply chains for a wider swath of goods and services. Further disruptions to supply chains and energy markets from Omicron and the BC flood later in November are expected to add to price uncertainties in the near term.

In a speech today, Governor Tiff Macklem of the Bank of Canada assured the public that the Bank of Canada would remain the country’s number-one inflation fighter. Macklem clarified that flexibility in their new mandate won’t apply in situations — like now — when inflation is considerably above target.

At a press conference after the speech, Macklem noted he wasn’t comfortable with current elevated levels of inflation and the “time is getting closer” for policymakers to move away from the forward guidance. Markets are pricing in five interest rate hikes next year by the Bank of Canada.

Published DLC’s Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper

Housing Affordability Erodes Further With Record-Low Supply
Housing affordability remains a huge political issue and with the Department of Finance working on the upcoming budget, no doubt measures to reduce home prices will be front and center. What we desperately need is dramatic increases in new housing construction, which has been woefully constrained by local zoning and city planning issues. These are not under the auspices of the federal government. So instead, bandaid measures that do not directly address the fundamental issue of a housing shortage will likely be forthcoming. More on that below.

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics for December 2021 showing national existing-home sales rose edged higher on a month-over-month basis, constrained by limited supply. Excess demand pushed home prices up on the month by 2.5%, taking the 2021 home price index up a record 26.6% year-over-year.

Small gains in home sales in November and December followed a 9% surge in activity in October, placing sales in the final quarter of 2021between the highs and lows seen earlier and the year (see chart below). With the exception of month-over-month sales gains in Calgary and the Fraser Valley, most other large markets mirrored the national trend of little change between November and December. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in December 2021 came in 9.9% below the record for that month set in 2020. That said, as has been the case throughout the second half of 2021, it was still the second-highest level on record for the month.

On an annual basis, a total of 666,995 residential properties traded hands via Canadian MLS® Systems in 2021. This was a new record by a large margin, surpassing the previous annual record set in 2020 by a little more than 20%, and standing 30% above the average of the last 10 years.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes fell 3.2% in December compared to November, with declines in Greater Vancouver, Montreal and a number of other areas in Quebec more than offsetting an increase in new supply in the GTA.

With sales little changed and new listings down in December, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 79.7% compared to 77% in November. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%.

Almost two-thirds of local markets were sellers’ markets based on the sales-to-new listings ratio being more than one standard deviation above its long-term mean in December 2021. The remaining one-third of local markets were in balanced market territory.

There were just 1.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of December 2021 — the lowest level ever recorded. The long-term average for this measure is a little more than 5 months.

Home Prices

In line with the tightest market conditions ever recorded, the Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) was up another 2.5% on a month-over-month basis in December 2021.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up by a record 26.6% on a year-over-year basis in December.

Looking across the country, year-over-year price growth has crept back above 25% in B.C., though it remains lower in Vancouver, close to on par with the provincial number in Victoria, and higher in other parts of the province.

Year-over-year price gains are still in the mid-to-high single digits in Alberta and Saskatchewan, while gains are running at about 12% in Manitoba.

Ontario saw year-over-year price growth remain above 30% in December, with the GTA continuing to surge ahead after trailing other parts of the province for most of the pandemic.

Greater Montreal’s year-over-year price growth remains at a little over 20%, while Quebec City was only about half that.

Price growth is running above 30% in New Brunswick (higher in Greater Moncton, lower in Fredericton and Saint John), while Newfoundland and Labrador is now at 11% year-over-year.

Bottom Line–We Are In The Political Season

The Bank of Canada conducted a recent study of residential mortgage originations at federally regulated financial institutions since 2014 to determine the share and financial characteristics of mortgage-financed homebuying by type of purchaser: first-time homebuyers; repeat buyers (the so-called move-up market); and investors.

First-time homebuyers are the largest group, generally accounting for roughly half of all mortgage purchases since 2014. Repeat homebuyers (those that discharged their previous mortgage when they took a new mortgage) comprised 31% of all mortgaged buyers over the same period. Investors having multiple mortgages represent 19% of purchases since 2014. Investors without mortgages are not included in the data, so foreign investors who might have borrowed money outside of Canada are not included.

The chart below shows that since 2015, the share of first-time homebuyers has fallen from over 52% to less than 48% of all mortgaged homebuying, while the share of repeat buyers is up slightly, and the share of investors has risen from under 18% to over 20%. Most of the rise in investor activity was in 2017 and 2021.

The Bank of Canada concludes that the increased presence of investors in the housing market has augmented demand and “may reflect a belief that house prices will continue to rise in value…By exacerbating so-called boom-bust cycles in housing markets, investors could thus be a source of instability for the financial system and the economy more broadly. At the same time, investors are an important source of housing rental supply. We need to do further research to examine the delicate balance between adding to rental supply while removing new builds and resale supply in a housing market that already has supply constraints.”

The Ministry of Housing and Diversity and Inclusion, in partnership with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), according to a Financial Post article dated January 12, is concerned about “speculative investing” in housing, “prompting Canadians to overbid on properties, borrow beyond what they can afford, and push home prices even higher.”

“By developing policies to curb excessive profits in investment properties, protecting small independent landlords and Canadian families, and reviewing the down payment requirements for investment properties, we are targeting the issues the market is facing from multiple angles.” Currently, investors must make a 20% down payment.

It looks like the Feds may well raise the minimum downpayments on investment property loans. They are also considering a limitation on the sources of funding for these properties.

What the Canadian housing market needs is substantial new affordable housing construction. Impeding this is the long and tortuous planning process and local government zoning rules. Actions taken to reduce housing demand in the face of nearly a million new immigrants coming to Canada in 2021 and 2022, if severe enough, could throw the whole economy into recession, particularly given that the Bank of Canada is on the precipice of hiking interest rates. The wealth and liquidity of millions of Canadian households are tied up in housing, so the government must take care not to push demand restrictions too far, especially since condo investments augment the very tight rental markets.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Another Strong Jobs Report In December
Statistics Canada released the December Labour Force Survey this morning, reporting employment gains of 54,700 last month–double market expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 5.9% from the 6.0% rate posted in November and is only 0.2 percentage points above the 5.7% rate posted in February 2020 before the pandemic began.

More people were working full-time in December, particularly core-aged men aged 25 to 54. Most of the employment growth was in Ontario. Nationally, gains were driven by the construction and educational services industries.
After having regained its pre-COVID level for the first time in November, total hours worked were little changed in December.

Full-time employment rose by 123,000 (+0.8%) in December, with most of the increase occurring among men of core working age (+95,000; +1.6%). In comparison, the number of people working part-time declined (-68,000; -1.9%). Since June, full-time employment has trended up and was 248,000 (+1.6%) higher than its pre-pandemic February 2020 level in December. In contrast, part-time employment has been mostly flat since June and remained at virtually the same level as in February 2020.

Average hourly wages increased 2.7% (+$0.80) on a year-over-year basis in December, similar to the average pace of wage growth observed from 2017 to 2019 (+2.6%). However, inflation accelerated considerably in 2021.
The number of Canadians unemployed for 27 weeks or more fell for the second consecutive month (-25,000; -8.0%) and stood at 293,000 in December. While long-term unemployment fell in each of the previous two months, it accounted for a substantially higher share of total unemployment in December (24.1%) than in February 2020 (15.6%), before the onset of the pandemic.

The labour underutilization rate—the proportion of people in the potential labour force who are unemployed; want a job but have not looked for one; or are employed but working less than half of their usual hours—fell 0.4 percentage points to 12.0% in December, the lowest rate observed since the onset of the pandemic. While this remained 0.6 percentage points above the record low of 11.4% immediately before the pandemic in February 2020, it is within the range of monthly rates observed through 2018 and 2019, ranging from 11.5% to 12.2%.

In December, the decline in the labour underutilization rate was driven by a decrease in the number of people working less than half of their usual hours. The share of the population aged 15 years and older participating in the labour market held steady at 65.3% in December, virtually the same as before the pandemic.

Hence, there is little doubt that Canada is very close to full employment. This is what the Bank of Canada has been looking towards in making its first post-pandemic rate-hike decision.

Bottom Line

The December Labour Force Survey was conducted before the recent Omicron restrictions. I believe it is unlikely that the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council will hike rates at its next meeting on January 26. Though some market participants are betting on a January lift-off, The Bank’s forward guidance remains no sooner than Q2 action, and there is little reason, at this uncertain time, for them to accelerate that decision. Moreover, if they want to prove their inflation-fighting credibility, they could hike at the following meeting on March 2. Odds are the likelihood of an April 13 lift-off.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca